----- Abstract -----

The current trends in technology, multimedia, Internet, etc. are blended with influencing factors as diverse as analytical languages, soundscape, financial viability, backlash reactions, and filtered through the author's impression of human nature to provide a glimpse of some possible (and some improbable) scenarios and their repercussions. The main predicted characteristic is that of diversity, not only in musical styles but also in performance contexts and sound producers. It is left to the reader to choose which of the proposed scenarios merit encouragement.

The traditional concepts of "composer" and "composition" become eroded as more people from diverse backgrounds and for diverse reasons become involved in the construction of sonic objects, textures, forms, etc. in an enormous variety of contexts. Those who see only chaos in the world are regarded as mal-adapted who cannot recognize the beauty of coexisting multiple orders; chaotic music is shunned in favour of works which skilfully manipulate multiple layers of information.

Increasingly accessible electronic capabilities (sophisticated synthesizers, sound cards, etc.) and a wider variety of educational resources (more flexible institutional course structures, on-line bibliographic help, refined software, etc.) continue to create more options for the development of potential composers. Professionals from other fields with an innate creativity and an affinity for sounds can explore the medium quickly and easily. Critics and audiences acclaim some of their contributions for their refreshingly novel forms of expression. Many who become involved in composition as a hobby develop a greater insight into (and healthier criticism of) contemporary music.

College music libraries continue to increase their holdings of music from outside the Euro-American classical tradition. University theorists and musicologists complain that the 2 years now allotted to 20th century history and analysis courses is insufficient for adequate coverage of the main trends. Music history and composition students drop out at an unprecedented rate, complaining of being overwhelmed with repertoire. On the other hand, those who survive flourish with the knowledge that within the 5000-title listening list, they are likely to find a sufficient number of works which appeal to them.

The notion that the university system is to preserve the "mainstream avant-garde classical" tradition collapses with severe identity problems when the mainstream is conclusively shown to be founded on the basis of eclecticism, incorporating disparate elements from various cultural heritages. (It is partially revived when a clever study demonstrates how traces of most "foreign" elements can be found within individual passages from the mainstream 20th-century classical composers, thus obliterating the need to mention the original source.)

Theorists and cognitive scientists struggle to measure the emotive impact of a passage when the musical heritage of the listener corresponds to the most salient of the musical elements.

Graduate students produce tables matching various cultures with their characteristic elements, and produce sound samples of the most recommended combinations.

Recordings are issued with a code number , developed by analysts and ethnomusicologists, to inform the listener of the specific stylistic influences.

The division of the octave into 52 becomes the norm; those who still prefer keyboard synthesizers insist on a tunable 26-note/octave layout. Many opt for percussion or voice-activated sysnthesizers, while the most professional demand acoustic sound-producers. Instrument designers and builders flourish.

Pianos and dodecaphony become items of nostalgia.

Surveys show a marked increase in the tuning accuracy of orchestral musicians.

Dissemination of music becomes increasingly easy as digital recording and downloading of the same is available for little cost.

The world is inundated by uninspired pieces, and by slightly-altered copies of other people's work. Lawyers are continuously dealing with copyright suits.

The few cents that have to be paid for down-loading is such a low cost that other forms of pirating cease and the composers begin to enjoy remuneration.

Critical reviews abound as the public becomes desperate for advice in selecting new works.

The ability to download individual sections leads to much corruption of the composer's formal scheme, as many start downloading only the fast vibrant sections.

Music computer viruses multiply -- such as the Riemann, which modifies all rhythmic configurations into a 4/4 scheme.

Internet continues to bridge geographical distance for those who share similar aesthetics. As the net becomes more crowded, sonic tags are developed to indicate the particular characteristics and interests of a given group.

Musicologists are more readily able to track down information on obscure composers and make the scores available to instrumentalists worldwide.

Internet composers begin creating works with "hyper-music" links, where the listener can click on selected motives, cadences, etc. for further elaboration, variation, modulation, etc. Small groups of composers begin collaborating with interlinked compositions --- lawyers set up complicated monitoring systems to determine royalty payments. As "hyper-music" linked compositions become more popular, more composers relinquish control of form (sequence and duration of sound objects), concentrating instead on the creation of beautiful variegated textures, cyclical melodies and rhythms. A market develops in the distribution of sound files. Groups of jazz improvisors begin to jam using composed sound fragments as instruments.

Composers who insist on retaining control of all parameters in their works are considered autocratic.

Unemployed conductors (made redundant with the advent of Internet concerts) begin designing programs to control the rate of change from one sound layer to another.

As composers and theorists compile menus of samples with cross-references to similar textures , hitherto unnoticed similarities between disparate composers are revealed and historical precedence loses ground to serendipity.

The trend of multimedia productions encourages the development of closer correlation between music and visual images. "Morphing" of musical timbres and gestures becomes a fundamental compositional technique.

Abortive attempts at dialogue about the sound track between musicians and non-musicians leads to the realization that music has practically no verbal language to explain the characteristics of a work in a meaningful way to a non-musician. Analysts are forced to speak with electronic music composers and ethnomusicologists in an effort to compile a common vocabulary that can describe disparate sound experiences in a way that facilitates comparison. An effort is made to capture the essence of various types of musical style, melody, rhythm, etc. in short sound-file reference lists. Finally, an elegant vocabulary is developed which is valid for a plethora of styles and methods and readily understood by non-musicians.

There is an explosion in the variety of contexts available for performance. Although the headquarters of most large businesses now have concert halls, Internet concerts become the normal performance space, allowing the best instrumentalists to belong to numerous groups simultaneously, regardless of geographic location. Certain groups organize "live" concerts in disused symphony halls, where holographs of the musicians accompany the wired sound of the group.

There is an increase in privately-held recitals in opulent halls supported by the rich (computer and Internet company owners) with musicians playing Baroque music on period instruments. A few composers succeed in producing vibrant contemporary works for the same context and instrumentation, combining the Baroque clarity and balance of form with modern pitch structures and innovative rhythmic treatment.

Although a shift in the combustion engine technology changes the road noise, the sound environment continues to become noisier. The reaction is to produce more musical noise wherever possible. Household appliances, decorations, vehicles, etc. are produced in a variety of sounds to match the buyer's taste and decor.

Refrigerators, air conditioners, fluorescent lights and similar drone-producing objects are presented in a variety of timbres and pitch, with advanced models having adjustable volume and tuning.

Carpet-designing becomes a collaborative effort between composers and visual artists, with the sound element activated by footsteps and bearing predictable relationships to the colour and pattern.

Solar-powered musical flowerpots are designed for optimum stimulation of the particular plant type. A pot that amplifies the plant's own sonic emissions and transposes it to a lower frequency range (more audible to humans) becomes a hot seller.

Clocks are available with an almost infinite variety of musical fragments to indicate the hour.

As people grow tired of the hourly interruption, user-chosen or random time intervals for the sonic signal become more popular, distorting the common understanding of the concept "clock time".

Because some people do not have the time, interest or talent to select satisfying combinations of these sound objects, professional sound designers are hired to customize the client's environment.

Somewhere, a clever sound designer begins a trend towards the silent home.

Computer programs designed to generate music "in the style of ..." become a hot market item as they become more refined and are developed to produce continuous background for shops, offices, etc. Employees compete to earn the right to select the composer type of the morning. "Top 10" lists abound as companies try to keep abreast of buyer preferences. Musicologists gain more impetus to search for obscure works and composers and re-examine those previously discarded.

Lazy composers try to take advantage of the generative computer programs so that they have to write only a few bars, and the computer multiplies their efforts, but the paucity of interest in the original sample is even more evident after computer manipulation. The program is then hailed as a "litmus test" for quality, and becomes a challenge to composers worldwide.

As many sounds of nature become rare or extinct, composers who write anything incorporating timbres, rhythms or melodies of birds (apart from sparrows and starlings) are instantly acclaimed. Composers including water sounds in their works sell millions in areas affected by drought.

Hollywood produces simplistic versions of certain birdsongs which are considered by future generations to be indistinguishable from the real thing.

There is an increased understanding of auditory perception, due to careful research, feedback, and the inclusion of the subject on standard university programs. This has little effect on those composers who aim for instant mass appeal (they already stay well within the bounds) nor on those who enjoy remaining obtuse writing (who simply ignore the issue) but leads to a more refined manipulation of sonic materials by composers who benefit from being able to imagine the most likely response of a certain profile of listener to a given combination of elements.

Since the particular education and biases of a listener affects the reaction to anything but the simplest sound objects, it becomes standard practice for composers to announce the ideal listener profile on the concert publicity. In order to refine the research, audiences are usually requested to fill out a profile sheet and reaction sheet for each work heard.

Overall, I remain optimistic about the future environments for music. The expansion of the CD market seems likely to continue (though presumably in a "New! Improved!" format), which will ensure availability of diverse musical works and performances. Within academia, the proliferation of 20th-century styles in conjunction with the more globally-aware perspective of the ethnomusicologist is already forcing a broader base for musical studies. This in turn encourages a more adequate training for the young composer, easing the integration of disparate influences and the development of a cohesive personal style.

The Internet promotes the formation of groups who share interests and aesthetics, helping create sympathetic audiences for given works by "word-of-mouth" publicity. Those who live away from the major academic or urban centres of the world are no longer penalized, contributing to the range of aesthetic and intellectual choices and giving a new interpretation to the "1 person - 1 vote" concept.

The inevitable technological advances will doubtless influence the development of music in some unpredictable way, especially as the sensitivity of the system allows it to respond to even the most faddish desires if calculated to be financially rewarding. Will it be computerized jewelry for dancers which produce musical sounds through muscle movement? A system that converts any digital image to sound by a predetermined pixel/sample correspondence? A spray can of silence, in various durations and frequency ranges? Whatever catches our (their) fancy.

In short, every type of music should be possible, even if not yet available on CD (or direct brain-wave implant...). It will remain for us to choose what we want. The criterion of innovation will probably fade in importance, but be replaced with an increasing focus on the present moment, with the choice and sequence of musical ideas presented (by the composer, performer, broadcaster, etc.) operating as a form of discourse. Hopefully, by the time the electricity runs out and we once again have to rely on live concerts and acoustic instruments, we will still know how to make music.

Référence: http://farben.latrobe.edu.au/mikropol/volume2/mountain-r/mountain.html